Prediction of the Dynamics of Polymorbid Pathology

A unified methodological approach is proposed to describe the nosological structure of polymorbidity, systematize its clinical and epidemiological properties patterns, as well for phenomena associated with it. probabilistic model used at phenomenological level picture formation resulting statistics polymorbidity in a population. The ergodic hypothesis underlies morbidity results have meaning ensemble averages. microscopic (internal) states system can take on all possible values compatible given macroscopic (external) parameters. Of states, those that highest statistical weight are realized maximum probability. real defines block diagram model. Those aspects correspond objectives study displayed. direct task draw up an according parameters disease. inverse individual (clinical) description nosology based (population average) data. special state probability linear regression method compare theoretical observations. test allows estimating distribution. adequacy checked when it "fitted" observational fitting rationally characterize polymorbid pathology – incidence rate.